Al Qaeda Friday - Why no new attacks?
Why have there been no new al Qaeda attacks on U.S. soil in over 4 years? Successful counter-terrorism efforts? Maybe, but if so, I suspect they’ve stopped only limited plans hatched by small rogue cells. When it comes to the al Qaeda leadership, I think we must seek other explanations.
First, “What is al Qaeda’s goal w/respect to the United States?” Their stated goal of ending the presence and influence of the west in muslim regions, thereby facilitating the establishment of a pan-islamic utopia seems, on the face of it, extraordinarily unrealistic. The west is…not…going…anywhere. Why? Because the region’s petroleum resources are the sine qua non of modern existence. As the sole remaining superpower, America has tasked herself (and our proxies) with ensuring a steady and uninterrupted supply of that resource, and the rules of power (which are not necessarily moral) dictate our continued presence for the foreseeable future. The only way al Qaeda even has a ghost of a chance of getting us out is by inventing a new and plentiful (and preferably) non-polluting fuel supply for the entire world. That, however, is not who they are.
Consequently, al Qaeda’s leadership must realize that their goal is simply unattainable by their current methods. Consider even a few of Al Qaeda’s challenges:
Cell member commitment - I suspect that for many of them, their hatred is focused on an abstract conception of America and is not really deeply personal. In contrast consider the Occupied Territories, where the Israeli army can with impunity mete out daily violence and humiliation on a relatively powerless populace. As a result, Israel can certainly count on a steady supply of terrorist recruits ready to blow themselves up out of sheer rage and impotence. (Lest we get too comfortable, thanks to this administration’s invasion and occupation of Iraq, not to mention incidents such as Abu Ghraib (all photos still not released!), or using the wives and family of suspected insurgents as bait, and Lord knows what else, we’ve supplied Al Qaeda with a breeding ground for terrorists with a deeply personal hatred for actual Americans. Fantastic. Thanks W.)
Stupor - There exists in our society a soma-like inertia, the mind-numbing momentum of our daily lives. This stupor began to reassert itself mere weeks after the shock of 9/11, especially if you were outside NY or DC. In the absence of follow up attacks (not including the Beltway sniper), we wrote it off as a lucky shot and got on with our lives.
So how might an al Qaeda mastermind respond to these challenges? Suicide bombings? Maybe, but even with the ease of smuggling terrorists and conventional explosives, it’s hard to imagine recruiting volunteers for martyrdom operations at the local WalMart. No, they've got to think big to inspire followers to sacrifice towards a glorious end. Unfortunately, that may mean that anything less than the total destruction of America as we know it would be seen as a waste of time and limited resources. Destruction at that scale is simply not possible without careful and considered long-term planning and positioning of resources. No new attacks? What if we've just been lulling ourselves into a false sense of security?
Next Friday…American Hiroshima.
First, “What is al Qaeda’s goal w/respect to the United States?” Their stated goal of ending the presence and influence of the west in muslim regions, thereby facilitating the establishment of a pan-islamic utopia seems, on the face of it, extraordinarily unrealistic. The west is…not…going…anywhere. Why? Because the region’s petroleum resources are the sine qua non of modern existence. As the sole remaining superpower, America has tasked herself (and our proxies) with ensuring a steady and uninterrupted supply of that resource, and the rules of power (which are not necessarily moral) dictate our continued presence for the foreseeable future. The only way al Qaeda even has a ghost of a chance of getting us out is by inventing a new and plentiful (and preferably) non-polluting fuel supply for the entire world. That, however, is not who they are.
Consequently, al Qaeda’s leadership must realize that their goal is simply unattainable by their current methods. Consider even a few of Al Qaeda’s challenges:
Cell member commitment - I suspect that for many of them, their hatred is focused on an abstract conception of America and is not really deeply personal. In contrast consider the Occupied Territories, where the Israeli army can with impunity mete out daily violence and humiliation on a relatively powerless populace. As a result, Israel can certainly count on a steady supply of terrorist recruits ready to blow themselves up out of sheer rage and impotence. (Lest we get too comfortable, thanks to this administration’s invasion and occupation of Iraq, not to mention incidents such as Abu Ghraib (all photos still not released!), or using the wives and family of suspected insurgents as bait, and Lord knows what else, we’ve supplied Al Qaeda with a breeding ground for terrorists with a deeply personal hatred for actual Americans. Fantastic. Thanks W.)
Stupor - There exists in our society a soma-like inertia, the mind-numbing momentum of our daily lives. This stupor began to reassert itself mere weeks after the shock of 9/11, especially if you were outside NY or DC. In the absence of follow up attacks (not including the Beltway sniper), we wrote it off as a lucky shot and got on with our lives.
So how might an al Qaeda mastermind respond to these challenges? Suicide bombings? Maybe, but even with the ease of smuggling terrorists and conventional explosives, it’s hard to imagine recruiting volunteers for martyrdom operations at the local WalMart. No, they've got to think big to inspire followers to sacrifice towards a glorious end. Unfortunately, that may mean that anything less than the total destruction of America as we know it would be seen as a waste of time and limited resources. Destruction at that scale is simply not possible without careful and considered long-term planning and positioning of resources. No new attacks? What if we've just been lulling ourselves into a false sense of security?
Next Friday…American Hiroshima.
posted by Leroy Loutre at 4:25 PM
1 Comments:
I do not think we have "lulled" (I cringe as I think about how Dubbya speaks this word) ourselves into a false sense of security. I just think most people in the US, that is, just do not want to think about it and are in a state of denial grounded in naivity or a chosen ignorance about how many people view our contry and its ethos abroad, not to mention within our own 50 states. Eeeghads! Who wants to think about our actions abroad and the negative consequences and the negative Karma we are creating...could you pass me the remote-thanks.
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